THE IMPLICATIONS OF EL NIÑO FOR COVER CROPS AND WINTER FORAGE
There was a time in my life when I was considering becoming a meteorologist, but when I realized how often people get annoyed with an inaccurate weather forecast I decided it wasn’t for me. The fact of the matter is, even our most advanced artificial intelligence weather models are wrong more often than most weather men would like to admit.
That said, I have always been fascinated with how certain factors can be correlated with seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns that will occur for months in the future. Sea surface temperatures are an excellent example of this. As it stands currently, we’ve transitioned into a strong El Niño as indicated by a large band of warm water off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. What this means for us at the Miner Institute farm is that our winter is expected to see temperatures that are 1.3° C above normal (on average). A similar correlation exists for many central and northern regions of the country.
While this temperature difference may not seem like a lot, it could easily be the difference between snow and rain if the temperature is close to freezing, or winterkill vs. survival for borderline species. It also would translate into substantial savings for those of us who could be paying record-high fuel oil prices this winter.
But how could this El Niño affect our cover crops and winter forage? As a general rule, milder winters tend to favor better biomass and survival for most winter annuals. However, the milder weather does mean that we will likely have less snow cover and more ice sheeting issues than normal. So, while this may be a great year to try cover crops or winter forage, I would prioritize fields that are flat and less prone to ponding. Warmer than average does not mean that we won’t have blasts of arctic air at times, and exposed fields with borderline species could still see significant losses.
El Niño also does not mean that we won’t get an early frost this year. El Niño autumns do not have the same warm bias that winter does, and first frosts always occur when conditions are “just right” for it each year. There is simply no telling when exactly that will be.
El Niño can influence precipitation patterns, but it seems to be much more context-dependent than the temperature correlation. The Northeast, for example, tends to see drier than average weather in December with a moderate El Niño but the opposite with a strong El Niño. Thus, changes in magnitude could result in substantially different outlooks for the region.
Regardless of the weather, cover crops and winter forage continue to prove themselves to be valuable cropping tools even in cold climates such as upstate New York. While warmer than average temperatures in December, January, and February may tip the scales in your favor, timely establishment is likely to have a much bigger impact on the results.
— Allen Wilder
